BELLEVUE, Wash. — The Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) has compiled a new fact sheet refuting 85 documented claims from anti-gun groups, advocates and public officials who stated pro-Second Amendment court rulings and reforms would produce more shootings, more deaths and immediate surges in violence.
FBI data and other sources instead show three consecutive years of declining murder rates (-9.1% in 2023, -13.7% in 2024, and -18.1% in 2025), the largest one-year drop in violent crime on record in 2025, and a 2026 trajectory that would put the national murder rate at a modern low of roughly 3.2 per 100,000 based on data through July. The sheet also links all 85 predictions researched and the underlying crime data for transparency.
“After Bruen, after Cargill, after permitless carry, after every other expansion of the right to keep and bear arms, the same organizations and officials predicted more death,” said SAF Director of Legal Research and Education and fact sheet author Kostas Moros. “They were not even close, yet the mainstream media continues to quote these sources without checking the facts, which directly contradict the predictions from gun-control advocates. The fact sheet even puts the predictions and the FBI numbers side-by-side, so no one has to take our word for it, the facts are readily accessible in the document.”
Titled The Bloodbath That Never Came, the fact sheet covers predictions issued after New York State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n v. Bruen (2022), Garland v. Cargill (the bump-stock decision), the spread of permitless or “constitutional” carry, the elimination of the National Firearms Act tax on certain arms and recent Department of Justice and ATF actions. In each case, groups including Brady, Everytown, Giffords and March For Our Lives, along with elected officials, warned of bloodshed.
“Mainstream news coverage continues to quote anti-gun predictions of imminent violence without mentioning the unbroken record of prior claims that failed,” said SAF Executive Director Adam Kraut. “We hope this research provides a unique resource to anyone looking for the researched numbers instead of relying on the same anti-gun rhetoric we see and hear on the news after every pro-Second Amendment ruling or reform.”
The Second Amendment Foundation (saf.org) is the nation’s oldest and largest tax-exempt education, research, publishing and legal action group dedicated to safeguarding and promoting the fundamental rights of individuals enshrined in the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution. SAF engages in aggressive legal action to ensure the principles of armed self-defense, personal liberty, and the ownership of arms are defended, secured, and restored. Through public education initiatives, SAF teaches the importance of the Second Amendment to promote a society that values and exercises the right to keep and bear arms.
